Tuesday, 21 November 2017

2016 Election Predictions & Map

2016 Election Predictions & Map

While I’m excited for this election to end, I can’t say I’m confident in what the outcome will be. Nor am I confident in making any predictions. But today is a day for bold stances, so I will try.

Since Donald Trump began dominating the primaries, I thought the outcome was inevitable. I assumed that either Bernie or Hillary would easily win the General Election against the buffoon that is Trump. But so much has changed since that primary. I thought the election was over multiple times, and I was wrong every time. 2016 was a year where a pseudo-fascist could do no wrong, and an experienced woman (with plenty of real problems) could do no right.

I Thought It Was Over When…

When Trump admitted to not knowing what a ground game was, I thought his campaign was over before it even started. It wasn’t.

When Trump Called Mexicans rapists, I thought it was over for him. It wasn’t.

When Bernie Sanders pledged his home state’s delegates to Clinton at the Democratic National Convention, I thought it was over for Trump. It wasn’t.

When Trump said he would punish women for having abortions, I thought it was over. It wasn’t.

When Bernie endorsed Clinton, I thought the Democrats had sealed the deal. They hadn’t.

When Trump fired his first campaign manager, and then his second campaign manager, I thought his campaign couldn’t withstand the rest of the cycle. It could.

When the DNC was hacked and Debbie Wasserman Schultz was outed for picking sides, I thought Clinton was toast. She wasn’t.

When Trump called on 2nd Amendment Voters to “do something”, I thought the party would leave him. They didn’t.

When Trump called for more countries to have nuclear weapons, I thought he was done. He wasn’t.

When Trump said “Two Corinthians”, I thought the Evangelicals would admit he was a fraud. They didn’t.

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When just last week, Wikileaks showed the Clinton Campaign definitely broke FEC laws, I thought she would take a hit, and I’m not sure she did.

When Trump bragged about fame allowing him to sexually assault women, I thought it was over. It wasn’t.

When Trump called Vladimir Putin a great leader, I thought he was taking his campaign’s final breath. He wasn’t.

My 2016 Election Predictions


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
I THINK Hillary Clinton will win the electoral college comfortably, but will only win the popular vote by a few percentage points. Unofficially, I predict she’ll win by between 2 and 6%.

Official Presidential Prediction:

winner: Hillary Clinton (D) by 6 points, 49% – 43%

Other Predictions:

  • I don’t think either major third party candidate will reach the 5% threshold needed to get matching contributions. The Libertarians have a shot, but wouldn’t they reject the money anyways?
  • In my current state of Arizona, I predict a much closer race than anyone is anticipating. The Hispanic population is substantial here, and there is a candidate who thinks they are murderers and rapists. They’ll be at the polls. I predict Sheriff Joe Arpaio is ousted and his reign of terror ends. I hope at least.
  • Marijuana will be legalized in at least one more state.
  • I predict the Democrats ALMOST take the Senate back. I think they have a real shot, but if I plan on them winning, it almost certainly means they won’t. That’s just how my life goes.  Really, I couldn’t even get excited about my Cubbies in the World Series in fear that I’d jinx them.
  • This one is almost a given. I predict Trump calls the election rigged well before the final tallies are in. He’ll demand a recount no matter how badly he loses. I just hope he doesn’t call for people to take action. That is a legitimate fear this election day.

Ryan Black is a documentary filmmaker, political consultant, and digital media professional who writes about Progressive Politics.

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